Patrick Reed (lead), Klaus Keller, Greg Garner, Riddhi Singh, Rob Lempert

An important innovation that we will develop in the proposed project will be the use of multi-objective evolutionary optimization tools to quantify the trade-offs between proposed options (e.g., mitigation vs. geoengineering) and across different objectives (e.g., to maximize the total discounted utility, to reduce the probability of sea-level rise that would threaten the sustainability of low-lying regions, or to reduce the rate of temperature changes). Complementing the trade-off analysis, innovations in global sensitivity analysis will aid in discovering the critical modeling assumptions and uncertainties that shape these trade-offs. In combination, these tools will enhance our ability to explore a vast array of climate risk management strategies, evaluate their trade-offs for a broad range of metrics, and clarify key foci for uncertainty analysis.

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